Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Sold: M1 Ltd

I sold another of my stock today, M1 Ltd - 4000 shares @ $2.88.
This is my 2nd selling within 13 days.

The not so good news is I sold M1 at a loss.
My average buy price for M1 is quite high @ $3.40
Bought M1 in 2015 and had gotten 2 x dividends ($612 received).

M1 is releasing its Q2 16 result this coming Friday.
I am expecting a lower YoY net profit and thus, a lower dividend declared (Less than 7cents of dividend this time round). Unlike VICOM, which is cash rich, they can still afford to maintain their dividend payout currently. M1 need to reserve their money for upcoming frequency auction & infrastructure upgrade.

With this, I am expecting the share price to drop after the result release.
I will keep M1 in my watchlist and will buy back if the price is below $2.45

As mentioned during Q116 slides, "Mobile data revenue was 53.1% of service revenue".

MySIM was introduce during Jul2015 & Upsized Data was introduce during Mar2016. Both these plans offers more data at cheaper price. Thus, revenue will definitely be lower QoQ & YoY.

We can already see from the below slides, the percentage of tiered data plans customers exceeding data bundles is decreasing at a rate of 1% every quarter. Mobile postpaid, prepaid & Fibre monthly ARPU is going in 1 direction - downward :(

Recently, M1 price shoot up around 12% as there is rumor that there wont be 4th telco due to insufficient funds.
1 year ago, M1 price drop around 33% because there is a rumor of 4th telco.

A drop in net profit will be a fact. Let enjoy the rumor to make the price more exciting ;)

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